A dry first half of the year is likely to impact on yields this year and although the UK will probably still produce a surplus of wheat and barley that surplus could be smaller than recent years.
A mythology has grown up around harvesting. The word conjures up images of long hazy days, Constable landscapes and age-old traditions. But the business of harvesting has changed dramatically. The biggest outward sign of this is the size and complexity of combine harvesters. One a few years ago harvested more than 1,000 tonnes of wheat in just over 18 hours. A hundred years ago that would have taken a team of many men weeks to do.
But there has been just as dramatic change in the crop that farmers are harvesting. Sixty years ago the average UK farmer was lucky to grow a wheat crop that yielded two tonnes a hectare. Today the average is eight tonnes a hectare with some farmers regularly achieving 12 tonnes or more.
Improvements in pesticides and fertilisers have allowed some of this increase, but perhaps the most significant amount of progress has been in plant breeding. The UK pioneered cereal breeding throughout the 20th Century and continues to do so. The centre of this expertise is around Cambridgeshire. None of the companies that lead the way are British, but their German, French, Swiss and American owners recognise that there is no better place in terms of knowledge and location than East Anglia to develop the new varieties that farmers and their consumers require.
The developments in wheat breeding have not just been about yield, but also about quality. Just 30 years ago the UK imported more than 60% of the wheat it needed for bread making; now that figure is less than 20% as breeders have focused on delivering baking qualities. UK bread wheat is now of such quality that Hovis have committed to just using it in its loaves. A recent study by the British Society of Plant Breeders shows that plant breeding contributes more than £1 billion a year to the UK economy in terms of the value it adds. This is a return of 40 times on the income breeders receive from farmers.
All these developments have taken place through the use of conventional breeding rather than using genetic modification. Although this demonstrates that GM is not the only game in town, it does raise the question of many more developments make take place through better knowledge of crop genetics.
Cereal breeders are already using gene marking technology to speed up the development of new varieties as well identify traits that might improve a variety. The judicious use of GM technology could speed this process up even further resulting in cereal crops that are more tolerant of drought, have a natural immunity to pests and disease, do not need so much fertiliser and deliver nutritional benefits.
UK plant breeders have the knowledge and skills to carry out that research the big question is whether they will be given the freedom to do so or whether political and consumer opposition to GM research will prevent them from doing so.
Cedric Porter is the Director of Supply Intelligence a consultancy that provides agricultural supply information, communications and support to retailers, food processors, agricultural supply companies and government agencies. He is also a Director of the Oxford Farming Conference. See www.supplyintelligence.co.uk for more information.
A mythology has grown up around harvesting. The word conjures up images of long hazy days, Constable landscapes and age-old traditions. But the business of harvesting has changed dramatically. The biggest outward sign of this is the size and complexity of combine harvesters. One a few years ago harvested more than 1,000 tonnes of wheat in just over 18 hours. A hundred years ago that would have taken a team of many men weeks to do.
But there has been just as dramatic change in the crop that farmers are harvesting. Sixty years ago the average UK farmer was lucky to grow a wheat crop that yielded two tonnes a hectare. Today the average is eight tonnes a hectare with some farmers regularly achieving 12 tonnes or more.
Improvements in pesticides and fertilisers have allowed some of this increase, but perhaps the most significant amount of progress has been in plant breeding. The UK pioneered cereal breeding throughout the 20th Century and continues to do so. The centre of this expertise is around Cambridgeshire. None of the companies that lead the way are British, but their German, French, Swiss and American owners recognise that there is no better place in terms of knowledge and location than East Anglia to develop the new varieties that farmers and their consumers require.
The developments in wheat breeding have not just been about yield, but also about quality. Just 30 years ago the UK imported more than 60% of the wheat it needed for bread making; now that figure is less than 20% as breeders have focused on delivering baking qualities. UK bread wheat is now of such quality that Hovis have committed to just using it in its loaves. A recent study by the British Society of Plant Breeders shows that plant breeding contributes more than £1 billion a year to the UK economy in terms of the value it adds. This is a return of 40 times on the income breeders receive from farmers.
All these developments have taken place through the use of conventional breeding rather than using genetic modification. Although this demonstrates that GM is not the only game in town, it does raise the question of many more developments make take place through better knowledge of crop genetics.
Cereal breeders are already using gene marking technology to speed up the development of new varieties as well identify traits that might improve a variety. The judicious use of GM technology could speed this process up even further resulting in cereal crops that are more tolerant of drought, have a natural immunity to pests and disease, do not need so much fertiliser and deliver nutritional benefits.
UK plant breeders have the knowledge and skills to carry out that research the big question is whether they will be given the freedom to do so or whether political and consumer opposition to GM research will prevent them from doing so.
Cedric Porter is the Director of Supply Intelligence a consultancy that provides agricultural supply information, communications and support to retailers, food processors, agricultural supply companies and government agencies. He is also a Director of the Oxford Farming Conference. See www.supplyintelligence.co.uk for more information.
